Daily Homicides in Mexico Fall Thirty-Seven Percent In Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Government Data

The typical figure of daily homicides per month in Mexico has dropped by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to recent administrative data. However, public safety experts have warned that homicide data may not point to enhanced countrywide stability.

Marked Drop in Per-Day Figures

There was an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in November versus roughly 87 when the President took the presidential office in the previous September. This information was delivered by the head of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we’ve had over these months is extremely important,” the President remarked, explaining that last month the lowest amount of homicides were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Fierce drug cartel internal conflicts, alongside the administration's highly military operations to take on the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in the past few years. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data office.

That gave Mexico a murder rate over 4x greater than the US. However, killings have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her public safety strategy for an ostensibly steeper reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the Mexican leader declared: “There is a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and there is specific monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The central elements of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Enhanced collaboration between government agencies.

Expert Caution and Data Concerns

However, public safety experts cautioned that relying on homicide numbers to paint a picture of improved security was misleading. This is particularly true in light of the increase in different crimes such as abductions.

“This would be positive news if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the identical period last year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer useful for gauging the situation of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the inclination to correctly recognize and classify bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was additionally an issue because it could obscure periods when there were particularly high numbers of murders.

“Using the daily average makes spikes of violence invisible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the government can point to the success of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, according to government figures. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger

But in spite of these actions, Mexico is still beset by extreme bloodshed, with multiple regions in the midst of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Recently there was a notable murder of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.

A short time later, many thousands of youth protested in the capital and across the nation to voice their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The government shares [data] in a manner to create a story of security. Politically it’s highly effective, socially it’s very problematic,” the analyst remarked.