Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Commons Comeback
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.
Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avert any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
